Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales.

Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling for improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in identifying and anticipating tipping phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short for temporal early warning of tipping points, complementary spatial indicators can leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage of remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience of vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with Earth system models can improve process-based understanding of tipping points, their interactions, and potential tipping cascades. Such fine-resolution sensing can support climate tipping point risk management across scales.

Safe and just Earth system boundaries.

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1-3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

How do terrestrial wildlife communities respond to small-scale Acacia plantations embedded in harvested tropical forest?

To offset the declining timber supply by shifting towards more sustainable forestry practices, industrial tree plantations are expanding in tropical production forests. The conversion of natural forests to tree plantation is generally associated with loss of biodiversity and shifts towards more generalist and disturbance tolerant communities, but effects of mixed-landuse landscapes integrating natural and plantation forests remain little understood. Using camera traps, we surveyed the medium-to-large bodied terrestrial wildlife community across two mixed-landuse forest management areas in Sarawak, Malaysia Borneo which include areas dedicated to logging of natural forests and adjacent planted Acacia forests. We analyzed data from a 25-wildlife species community using a Bayesian community occupancy model to assess species richness and species-specific occurrence responses to Acacia plantations at a broad scale, and to remote-sensed local habitat conditions within the different forest landuse types. All species were estimated to occur in both landuse types, but species-level percent area occupied and predicted average local species richness were slightly higher in the natural forest management areas compared to licensed planted forest management areas. Similarly, occupancy-based species diversity profiles and defaunation indices for both a full community and only threatened and endemic species suggested the diversity and occurrence were slightly higher in the natural forest management areas. At the local scale, forest quality was the most prominent predictor of species occurrence. These associations with forest quality varied among species but were predominantly positive. Our results highlight the ability of a mixed-landuse landscape with small-scale Acacia plantations embedded in natural forests to retain terrestrial wildlife communities while providing an alternate source of timber. Nonetheless, there was a tendency towards reduced biodiversity in planted forests, which would likely be more pronounced in plantations that are larger or embedded in a less natural matrix.

Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points.

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global "core" tipping elements and regional "impact" tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.

A resilience sensing system for the biosphere.

We are in a climate and ecological emergency, where climate change and direct anthropogenic interference with the biosphere are risking abrupt and/or irreversible changes that threaten our life-support systems. Efforts are underway to increase the resilience of some ecosystems that are under threat, yet collective awareness and action are modest at best. Here, we highlight the potential for a biosphere resilience sensing system to make it easier to see where things are going wrong, and to see whether deliberate efforts to make things better are working. We focus on global resilience sensing of the terrestrial biosphere at high spatial and temporal resolution through satellite remote sensing, utilizing the generic mathematical behaviour of complex systems-loss of resilience corresponds to slower recovery from perturbations, gain of resilience equates to faster recovery. We consider what subset of biosphere resilience remote sensing can monitor, critically reviewing existing studies. Then we present illustrative, global results for vegetation resilience and trends in resilience over the last 20 years, from both satellite data and model simulations. We close by discussing how resilience sensing nested across global, biome-ecoregion, and local ecosystem scales could aid management and governance at these different scales, and identify priorities for further work. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years'.

Dietary Fats, Human Nutrition and the Environment: Balance and Sustainability.

Dietary fats are essential ingredients of a healthy diet. Their production, however, impacts the environment and its capacity to sustain us. Growing knowledge across multiple disciplines improves our understanding of links between food, health and sustainability, but increases apparent complexity. Whereas past dietary guidelines placed limits on total fat intake especially saturated fats, recent studies indicate more complex links with health. Guidelines differ between regions of general poverty and malnutrition and those where obesity is a growing problem. Optimization of production to benefit health and environmental outcomes is hindered by limited data and shared societal goals. We lack a detailed overview of where fats are being produced, and their environmental impacts. Furthermore, the yields of different crops, for producing oils or feeding animals, and the associated land needs for meeting oil demands, differ greatly. To illuminate these matters, we review current discourse about the nutritional aspects of edible fats, summarize the inferred environmental implications of their production and identify knowledge gaps.

Quantitatively monitoring the resilience of patterned vegetation in the Sahel.

Patterning of vegetation in drylands is a consequence of localized feedback mechanisms. Such feedbacks also determine ecosystem resilience-i.e. the ability to recover from perturbation. Hence, the patterning of vegetation has been hypothesized to be an indicator of resilience, that is, spots are less resilient than labyrinths. Previous studies have made this qualitative link and used models to quantitatively explore it, but few have quantitatively analysed available data to test the hypothesis. Here we provide methods for quantitatively monitoring the resilience of patterned vegetation, applied to 40 sites in the Sahel (a mix of previously identified and new ones). We show that an existing quantification of vegetation patterns in terms of a feature vector metric can effectively distinguish gaps, labyrinths, spots, and a novel category of spot-labyrinths at their maximum extent, whereas NDVI does not. The feature vector pattern metric correlates with mean precipitation. We then explored two approaches to measuring resilience. First we treated the rainy season as a perturbation and examined the subsequent rate of decay of patterns and NDVI as possible measures of resilience. This showed faster decay rates-conventionally interpreted as greater resilience-associated with wetter, more vegetated sites. Second we detrended the seasonal cycle and examined temporal autocorrelation and variance of the residuals as possible measures of resilience. Autocorrelation and variance of our pattern metric increase with declining mean precipitation, consistent with loss of resilience. Thus, drier sites appear less resilient, but we find no significant correlation between the mean or maximum value of the pattern metric (and associated morphological pattern types) and either of our measures of resilience.

Stories of hope created together: A pilot, school-based workshop for sharing eco-emotions and creating an actively hopeful vision of the future.

The climate and ecological crises challenge all communities across the world, with the greatest impact upon the most vulnerable and the youngest. There are multiple impacts on mental health, including the psychological burdens that arise with increasing awareness of the loss, threat and injustice caused by these crises. Large numbers of young people globally are understandably concerned and distressed about these crises, whilst simultaneously reporting that their concerns are regularly dismissed and ignored, particularly by those in power. This can increase feelings of isolation and distress, particularly if they have no recourse to effect change. This pilot project sought to explore how a schools-based, co-created workshop for school pupils aged 16 to 18 years could use a community-oriented space to explore their eco-emotions, address feelings of isolation and engender a sense of realistic, active hope, using storytelling and images of possible futures. A 3-h workshop for delivery in schools was co-designed with young people, researchers, educators and clinicians, using principles of Youth Participatory Action Research (YPAR). Six school pupils aged 16-18 years consented and four completed the workshop, which involved a range of group-based activities to explore their understanding of the climate and ecological crises, support emotional expression related to these and engage in storytelling about hopeful and realistic futures. A live illustrator in attendance created shared images of the participants' fears and hopes. The workshop was recorded, transcribed and analysed using Thematic Analysis and sentiment analysis. Feedback was sought from participants at 1 and 4 weeks after completion and analysed using content analysis. Results indicated that participants reported a range of painful and positive emotions about the crises. They highly valued having space to express their experience alongside others. Storytelling and creativity appeared to help them articulate their feelings and hopes for the future, and gave them greater motivation and confidence in talking to others about these topics. This innovative pilot study suggests that a school-based youth participatory group could offer a novel way of helping young people to engage more with the climate and ecological crises in a way that supports their wellbeing. It provides strong support for future, larger-scale projects in this area.

A dynamic microsimulation model for epidemics.

A large evidence base demonstrates that the outcomes of COVID-19 and national and local interventions are not distributed equally across different communities. The need to inform policies and mitigation measures aimed at reducing the spread of COVID-19 highlights the need to understand the complex links between our daily activities and COVID-19 transmission that reflect the characteristics of British society. As a result of a partnership between academic and private sector researchers, we introduce a novel data driven modelling framework together with a computationally efficient approach to running complex simulation models of this type. We demonstrate the power and spatial flexibility of the framework to assess the effects of different interventions in a case study where the effects of the first UK national lockdown are estimated for the county of Devon. Here we find that an earlier lockdown is estimated to result in a lower peak in COVID-19 cases and 47% fewer infections overall during the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The framework we outline here will be crucial in gaining a greater understanding of the effects of policy interventions in different areas and within different populations.

The environmental impacts of palm oil in context.

Delivering the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires balancing demands on land between agriculture (SDG 2) and biodiversity (SDG 15). The production of vegetable oils and, in particular, palm oil, illustrates these competing demands and trade-offs. Palm oil accounts for ~40% of the current global annual demand for vegetable oil as food, animal feed and fuel (210 Mt), but planted oil palm covers less than 5-5.5% of the total global oil crop area (approximately 425 Mha) due to oil palm's relatively high yields. Recent oil palm expansion in forested regions of Borneo, Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula, where >90% of global palm oil is produced, has led to substantial concern around oil palm's role in deforestation. Oil palm expansion's direct contribution to regional tropical deforestation varies widely, ranging from an estimated 3% in West Africa to 50% in Malaysian Borneo. Oil palm is also implicated in peatland draining and burning in Southeast Asia. Documented negative environmental impacts from such expansion include biodiversity declines, greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. However, oil palm generally produces more oil per area than other oil crops, is often economically viable in sites unsuitable for most other crops and generates considerable wealth for at least some actors. Global demand for vegetable oils is projected to increase by 46% by 2050. Meeting this demand through additional expansion of oil palm versus other vegetable oil crops will lead to substantial differential effects on biodiversity, food security, climate change, land degradation and livelihoods. Our Review highlights that although substantial gaps remain in our understanding of the relationship between the environmental, socio-cultural and economic impacts of oil palm, and the scope, stringency and effectiveness of initiatives to address these, there has been little research into the impacts and trade-offs of other vegetable oil crops. Greater research attention needs to be given to investigating the impacts of palm oil production compared to alternatives for the trade-offs to be assessed at a global scale.

The long-term legacy of plastic mass production.

Mismanaged plastic waste is transported via rivers or city drains into the ocean where it accumulates in coastal sediments, ocean gyres and the deep ocean. Plastic harms marine biota and may ultimately return to humans via the food chain. Private initiatives proposing to collect plastic from the sea and rivers have gained widespread attention, especially in the media. However, few of these methods are proven concepts and it remains unclear how effective they are. Here we estimate the amount of plastic in the global surface ocean to assess the long-term legacy of plastic mass production, calculate the time required to clean up the oceans with river barriers and clean up devices, and explore the fate of collected plastic waste. We find that the projected impact of both single and multiple clean up devices is very modest. A significant reduction of plastic debris in the ocean can be only achieved with collection at rivers or with a combination of river barriers and clean up devices. We also show that the incineration and production of plastic has a significant long-term effect on the global atmospheric carbon budget. We conclude that a combination of reduced plastic emissions and reinforced collection is the only way to rid the ocean of plastic waste.

Habitat degradation and indiscriminate hunting differentially impact faunal communities in the Southeast Asian tropical biodiversity hotspot.

Habitat degradation and hunting have caused the widespread loss of larger vertebrate species (defaunation) from tropical biodiversity hotspots. However, these defaunation drivers impact vertebrate biodiversity in different ways and, therefore, require different conservation interventions. We conducted landscape-scale camera-trap surveys across six study sites in Southeast Asia to assess how moderate degradation and intensive, indiscriminate hunting differentially impact tropical terrestrial mammals and birds. We found that functional extinction rates were higher in hunted compared to degraded sites. Species found in both sites had lower occupancies in the hunted sites. Canopy closure was the main predictor of occurrence in the degraded sites, while village density primarily influenced occurrence in the hunted sites. Our findings suggest that intensive, indiscriminate hunting may be a more immediate threat than moderate habitat degradation for tropical faunal communities, and that conservation stakeholders should focus as much on overhunting as on habitat conservation to address the defaunation crisis.

The impact of Indonesian peatland degradation on downstream marine ecosystems and the global carbon cycle.

Tropical peatlands are among the most space-efficient stores of carbon on Earth containing approximately 89 Gt C. Of this, 57 Gt (65%) are stored in Indonesian peatlands. Large-scale exploitation of land, including deforestation and drainage for the establishment of oil palm plantations, is changing the carbon balance of Indonesian peatlands, turning them from a natural sink to a source via outgassing of CO2 to the atmosphere and leakage of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) into the coastal ocean. The impacts of this perturbation to the coastal environment and at the global scale are largely unknown. Here, we evaluate the downstream effects of released Indonesian peat carbon on coastal ecosystems and on the global carbon cycle. We use a biogeochemical box model in combination with novel and literature observations to investigate the impact of different carbon emission scenarios on the combined ocean-atmosphere system. The release of all carbon stored in the Indonesian peat pool, considered as a worst-case scenario, will increase atmospheric pCO2 by 8 ppm to 15 ppm within the next 200 years. The expected impact on the Java Sea ecosystems is most significant on the short term (over a few hundred years) and is characterized by an increase of 3.3% in phytoplankton, 32% in seagrass biomass, and 5% decrease in coral biomass. On the long term, however, the coastal ecosystems will recover to reach near pre-excursion conditions. Our results suggest that the ultimate fate of the peat carbon is in the deep ocean with 69% of it landing in the deep DIC pool after 1000 years, but the effects on the global ocean carbonate chemistry will be marginal.